๐“๐ก๐ž ๐†๐ซ๐ž๐š๐ญ ๐๐š๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐จ๐ง ๐ƒ๐ž๐œ๐ฅ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง – ๐๐š๐ซ๐ญ ๐Ÿ

Yesterday, I posted on this declaration from a 30,000 foot point of view. Today, I want to talk about the science behind it. In quick FB links or memes, these discussions become pendulum swings in both directions.

Be๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ž ๐ฐ๐ž ๐ ๐ž๐ญ ๐ ๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ : This is not a discussion about full throttle openings versus complete lockdowns (these are the pendulum swings). There is a middle ground – that sadly is not really being discussed right now by many. No one is advocating for another lockdown – we can get through this pandemic without one that protects the most vulnerable and our businesses (I’ve already written on this – go to the Table of Contents for those posts – look in the Economy section).

One side of the pendulum – We can all agree that lockdowns are not the answer and have significant ramifications on people, children, businesses, etc.

The other side of the pendulum – ๐๐ฎ๐ญ, ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐š๐ง๐ฌ๐ฐ๐ž๐ซ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐†๐ ๐ƒ๐ž๐œ๐ฅ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ž๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ซ – ๐ข๐ง ๐จ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ซ ๐ฐ๐จ๐ซ๐๐ฌ, ๐ญ๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฆ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ž ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฉ๐ž๐ง๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐ฐ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ญ๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐จ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐๐ž. I know that it can sound like it is middle-ground.

But, it’s not. Let me show you from the data.

I’m going to link to another group (Dear Pandemic) that did an excellent post on this already. BTW, are you all following them? If not, you should. They are a great group of scientists (#allfemalescientists) and have a fancy website with a search tool if you have specific questions. Dear FB, I need one of those! =)

๐Ž๐ค, ๐›๐š๐œ๐ค ๐ญ๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐๐ž๐œ๐ฅ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ฌ:

1. The declaration essentially advocates to try get to herd immunity without precautions – except for protecting the elderly. But this would increase isolation for this group. And, also does not take into account the OTHER at-risk groups in the community for deaths and hospitalizations.

2. The declaration does not account for staggering amounts of hospitalizations, long COVID-19 haulers, and deaths in those under 65. The.numbers.are.staggering – if we choose this method. Especially since MANY under the age of 65 live with conditions that place them at-risk of COVID-19 complications (overweight, obesity, hypertension, asthma, etc). ****It’s not just the elderly that are at-risk.****

3. What about waning immunity? We know that immunity likely wanes after weeks/months – so, it’s risky to let this virus run through populations that could be re-infected again – and is the second infection more severe? Some evidence suggests that.

4. “False dichotomy between lockdown and โ€œback to normalโ€” – From Dear Pandemic. Herd immunity is a myth. Especially with COVID-19. The goal is not zero infections – but, it is not herd immunity through the declaration’s approach either.

๐’๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐š๐ซ๐ฒ: Attempting herd immunity through natural infections leads to significant deaths/hospitalizations/long-haulers AND economic destruction. The middle ground of proper precautions protects both (again, see the Table of Contents on FB for that).

“๐€๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ญ๐จ๐ฅ๐, ๐š๐ญ๐ญ๐ž๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐ญ๐จ ๐ž๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐‚๐Ž๐•๐ˆ๐ƒ-๐Ÿ๐Ÿ— ๐ฉ๐š๐ง๐๐ž๐ฆ๐ข๐œ ๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐œ๐ค๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ข๐š ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐๐„๐’๐“ ๐‚๐€๐’๐„ ๐ฌ๐œ๐ž๐ง๐š๐ซ๐ข๐จ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ–๐ŸŽ% ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐ž๐œ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฌ๐ž ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ž๐ซ ๐Ÿ”๐Ÿ“ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ% ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฌ๐ž ๐Ÿ”๐Ÿ“ & ๐จ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐ฅ๐ž๐š๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐จ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ ๐Ÿ•๐Ÿ“๐Ÿ‘,๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ ๐ž๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐๐ž๐š๐ญ๐ก๐ฌ, ๐š๐ฅ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ž๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ฏ๐š๐ฅ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ ๐€๐ฆ๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ง ๐–๐จ๐ซ๐ฅ๐ ๐–๐š๐ซ ๐ˆ๐ˆ๐ฌ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐š๐ฅ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฅ๐Ÿ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฌ๐ž ๐๐ž๐š๐ญ๐ก๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฌ๐ž ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐ž๐ซ ๐š๐ ๐ž ๐Ÿ”๐Ÿ“. ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฆ๐›๐ž๐ซ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ก๐จ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅ๐ข๐ณ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ & ๐ˆ๐‚๐” ๐š๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐›๐ž ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ข๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž๐ฌ๐ž ๐๐ž๐š๐ญ๐ก ๐ง๐ฎ๐ฆ๐›๐ž๐ซ๐ฌ.” Now, here’s the link to the fantastic lengthy explanation from Dear Pandemic. I would encourage you to go read through all of it. – https://tinyurl.com/y58qmwud

-Friendly neighbor epidemiologist

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